Ripple Exec Disappoints XRP Bulls: 'If $10,000 XRP Was Real, It Would Already Be $20'

May 4, 2026 - 08:04

Ripple's chief technology officer David Schwartz has delivered a reality check to XRP bulls dreaming of a $10,000 price target. In a blunt assessment, Schwartz argued that if rational, wealthy investors truly believed there was even a 1% chance of XRP hitting five figures, the token would already be trading at $20 instead of its current price around $1.37.

Schwartz based his argument on the concept of market efficiency. He explained that if a serious investor with deep pockets saw a 1% probability of a $10,000 outcome, they would calculate the expected value at roughly $100. That would make buying XRP at $1.37 an obvious bargain. Such investors would pile in, driving the price up until the risk and reward balanced out. Since XRP has not moved anywhere near that level, Schwartz concluded the market simply does not assign any meaningful probability to such extreme predictions.

The CTO's comments highlight a recurring tension in the XRP community between speculative hype and basic financial logic. While some supporters continue to promote sky-high price forecasts based on hopes of mass adoption or a global settlement network, Schwartz urged a more grounded perspective. He did not rule out significant gains entirely, but he made clear that a jump to $10,000 would require a fundamental shift in the asset's real-world utility and demand, not just wishful thinking.

For now, Schwartz's message is clear: if a $10,000 XRP were a realistic possibility, the market would have already priced it in.